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Rule of Fear (I).

 Rule of Fear (I).


Generational Cycles. Friday, September 11, 2020.

Josep Bou Ferreiro.

Rule of Fear.


Let’s travel back in time. Imagine you are a French subject at the beginning of the year 1793. Probably you are witnessing horrified (or not) how your own fellows are chopping the head to the King of France and to a long list of important figures. You’ll watch astonished how, after having accepted a constitution and even seen a Republic to be born, those liberals end a thousand-year-old monarchy the bloodiest way.

All your customs and traditions, way of life and old rules that defined you as a fellow french will be outlawed. Forcefully, a single law, a single language and a single way of thinking will be imposed. Everything around you falls apart, and not by chance this period of history is called «terror kingdom». What will be the future?

However, today you can research for the true outcome for this episode in history. Even if you don’t know the characters and the facts in detail, you know that after beheadings of old elites, sooner or later an internal purge will take place and a large chaos will follow suit. Finally as a result, I can tell you that the political and military leader who drives society to normality, according to the new state of things, is named Napoleon.

But you can guess that the initial success was only temporary. And you’ll be right. The more ravaged the world, the easier other will cooperate to defeat him. At the end, only a bitter remembrance will remain from it all, and a new world where people can live, although under new rules and references. Your old life as a subject, now a French citizen, vanished or fully changed. But that will not have been the end of the world, unless you can’t survive.

Let’s go back to 2020. Those pattern you could have forecasted to a French citizen in 1793 may apply to the defeat of the Catalan nation in 1714, the Nazi era or even to the colonial and industrial Victorian era under the British kings. History is made of cycles repeating again and again, now under the look of the Mathematics of History.

That’s why the followers of the Mathematics of History, like I am, dare to point to a possible future: that’s Americans turn. Alexandre Deulofeu wanted people to live such times without fear, accepting changes and directing them the wisest way and most peaceful to avoid worse things to happen. Let’s see some clues and keys about what US people may expect and when.

Determinism or free will?

When you understand that transformations within society and empires are inevitable and oppose it face to face is useless, then you become resigned. Human nature is unavoidable. For instance, the fact of eliminating a corrupt elite like french –and European– aristocracy only put in its place another elite with its own program of destruction and slavery, despite it was in the name of Salvation, of course.

All peoples get to a breakpoint in which they must give a chance to the next generation and after making a certain number of reliefs, a deeper change occurs that pushes the whole nation. It is forced to face the radical change needed to overcome outdated ideas. But every society makes the deal its own way. That is, we know when the events will happen, but not how exactly. And just for that, there’s still room for hope. This is the main lesson we might learn: the same fact –or change– can happen many ways, then our energies should be focused in making it as harmless for the majority of people involved as possible.

Deulofeu already warned that in the USA, as an empire fully sunk in the deepest of its crisis, is about to blow an internal conflict, either a racial, social or territorial one. But in any case, it will unleash an immense suffering.

America and Amerika.

As you can search for in previous posts, the history of the USA is ruled by 2 main cycles: a 39 year long cycle, which seems to be related with the English colonization, and a second 40 year long cycle, we associate with the previous dutch and later German immigration.

At the end of every two 39 year long cycles alternate economic and political events. Let’s put an example to show it: In 1773 the Boston Tea Party took place. From an economic point of view, it was motivated by the imposition of taxes on imports to the American colonies. In 1812 (39 years later), North Americans decided to conquer the British colony of Canada, although it was a bloody nightmare of war that finished in a scoreless tie. Amazing as it is, 39 years later (or almost, as we are in december 1850) a new economic fact pops up again: the federal government assumes all Texas debt in exchange for lands. Nobody should be then surprised if I tell you that the Stock Exchange Crack from 1929 and the Goldman Sachs bankruptcy happened both at the end of intervals of 78 years (39+39). Guess what will happen next 2085…

But we must not miss the 40 year long cycle, the one from Dutch-German origin. In this case the shift is a change in the polarity: after 40 years under a conservative environment, follow 40 years of general revolutionary-progressive policies (which are independent from the party in office, the most important are the main policies). Now we are at the end of an era openly conservative that initiated Mister Reagan and ends in a similar fashion Mister Trump. We foresee that from 2021 on there will be a shift in the political trend that will last for 40 years and may adopt the shape of a revolution bringing to surface all grievances long time hidden.

Transition between both cycles.

You may wonder if there is any relationship between and how it works. Well, progressive cycles follow years of conflict. Key points from the 39 year long cycle are then sparks leading to them. By so doing, the Boston Tea Party is the spark for a revolution lasting to 1781 with the English surrender and later withdraw, that is, the «de facto» American independence. Two generations later, we find something similar: in 1850 a new law on slavery is approved (New Fugitive Slave Act) which complicates the North-South conflict, underlying from the beginning of the USA. In 1861 the Civil War outbreaks, precisely after expelling the British 80 years before and winning independence.

Look again at the fact those years are always related with wars: 1781, 1861, 1941. It will be worrying but not surprising if an American civil war takes place in 2021. Whatever we are going to see during the coming months is a shake of the American set that, consequently, will spray the whole world. The conflict itself will need 2 years (until 2023) to head the road towards a solution, but this one won’t come until 2029. In between, 2026 is an intermediate station. If next year’s revolution brings a time of chaos, that one will find a turning point in 2023 by means of a counterrevolution or the way to a more stable government, which may fall into crisis or put an end to the most violent part of the conflict around 2026, but nothing will be concluded until 2029, a year that can bring a more stable and definitive leadership.


This last year is specially important, because other countries have there a key point: Russia and Germany altogether in 2029, China in 2025, France and the British monarchy (not the country) in 2026, we don’t tell about other intermédiate points. Maybe they catch us with another flu in order to make us stay quiet while all relief mechanisms work. You never know, as the future is always a decision tree, not a single closed sequence. Nevertheless, consider a new fact: the 40 year cycle is indeed split in two identical ones, so making years 2041 and 2043 crucial moments when the change is intensified about everything started in 2021.

We base on previous experience. For instance, people outside the US usually think that the USA always have been the way they are now, but the truth is they started as a confederation and in 1786 there was an urge to change the relationship, ending 3 years later (1789) with the ratification of the present Constitution and its first amendments, setting it as a more centralized federation. The Civil War followed suit: a critical turning point happened in 1863 during the battle of Gettysburg, while the war itself ended in 1865, but the constitutional amendments that sealed the conflict lasted until the ratification of the right to vote through the 15th (March 1869 to February 1870). Finally, we left to the reader rebuild a WWII chronology, just knowing it finished with the beginning of the Cold War (1949).

The relay race.

In short, nothing esoteric but biological. Groups around power are replaced by a coming generation, which in turn has been trained under the same framework as their predecessors. Whether the spark appears within at the top of society, or by decisions from it, that spreads to the rest of society in the shape of unbalance. To recover a new balance, concrete time lapses are required in order to reestablish agreements of the groups, redefine goals and intentions. As those groups usually play under the same bottom references, the time needed is almost identical.

It looks like a relay race. Along every lane, a team of runners pass the baton while located at precise distances. They must receive it skillfully and take advantage of the moment to compete, so they advance as much as possible. The last runner is decisive, but all others are necessary. As in the races, the outcome gives a different hierarchy for the set of teams, so the struggle to keep or improve the position is fierce.

But unlike the relay, History/generational cycles never end, but repeats itself again and again. New runners learn by watching others on the track, and they have to run in circles, going one direction at one side of the track and the opposite on the other side, in order to come back. At the end, the race doesn’t stop, forcing the last ones to recover a position by running more, while the first tend top lay conservative to keep it. Somehow, it’s dramatic and related with Pareto’s «circulation of elite».

Such cycles are just segments within the longer civilization cycle discovered by Deulofeu, but there’s also a bottom ideology, fed by elites undergoing permanent transformation and conflict.

We’ll talk about this largely in the next post, but let’s say that the expression «Money is afraid» (much afraid) fits in this case. We live in the victory time of the financial/trading elites, that’s obvious, but all processes leading to success and decadence are not so evident. Once at the top, any change is seen as a threat, so this is the cause of transferring their fear by causing confusion, terror and stress. If, in addition, they pretend to gather all the wealth by eliminating consumers non-productive enough, then instability in the first military power will be for them an opportunity we must oppose in order to make succeed a better alternative.

Changes are more dramatic in the USA as the ROW becomes affected, but knowing in advance the story, maybe it’s time to avoid the worst effects the same way it was possible to avoid a nuclear war, just because everybody knew the outcome in advance.

Figure 1: Proposal of a chronology for the USA related with other countries for the next 25 years.Figure 1: Proposal of a chronology for the USA related with other countries for the next 25 years.

End of part I.

Link to the original article in Castillian Spanish and English languages: